Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-30

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-19) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-19 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 640 (576 – 710) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 24)
Algeria 180 (157 – 204) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -200 (29 – -22)
Argentina 697 (622 – 765) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (8.6 – 17)
Armenia 368 (335 – 400) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 19 (12 – 47)
Australia 12 (5 – 18) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -99 (5.9 – -5.3)
Austria 34 (23 – 44) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -27 (19 – -7.9)
Azerbaijan 147 (123 – 166) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (13 – -52)
Bahrain 285 (246 – 319) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 96 (23 – -43)
Bangladesh 1755 (1619 – 1893) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (16 – 32)
Belarus 970 (888 – 1060) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 78 (32 – -160)
Belgium 238 (207 – 268) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -51 (60 – -18)
Benin 16 (7 – 24) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.8 – 2.2) 4 (2.2 – 20)
Bolivia 455 (414 – 495) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.5 – 21)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 17 (10 – 25) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -52 (8.4 – -6.5)
Brazil 19057 (17587 – 20482) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (19 – 24)
Bulgaria 19 (10 – 27) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -10 (61 – -4.7)
Cameroon 227 (190 – 256) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 17 (9.5 – 86)
Canada 1077 (991 – 1157) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 940 (55 – -62)
Central African Republic 44 (32 – 55) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (7.2 – -28)
Chad 23 (13 – 31) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -36 (11 – -6.8)
Chile 4357 (4017 – 4696) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 18)
China 5 (2 – 9) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -35 (4.8 – -3.7)
Colombia 1017 (900 – 1120) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 22)
Cote dIvoire 56 (40 – 68) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (8 – -33)
Croatia 9 (0 – 21) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.4) 7.9 (1.9 – -4)
Cuba 14 (6 – 20) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 38 (5.2 – -7.3)
Czechia 55 (41 – 68) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -65 (18 – -12)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 129 (107 – 146) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (9.9 – -1300)
Denmark 52 (40 – 64) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -41 (22 – -10)
Djibouti 133 (111 – 150) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 24 (10 – -75)
Dominican Republic 348 (301 – 392) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 57 (21 – -70)
Ecuador 481 (432 – 530) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -34 (-520 – -18)
Egypt 858 (776 – 947) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 22)
El Salvador 79 (61 – 93) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 44 (12 – -25)
Equatorial Guinea 60 (44 – 70) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 11 (5.7 – 89)
Estonia 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 17 (3.8 – -7.1)
Ethiopia 60 (48 – 76) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.7 (4.6 – 23)
Finland 38 (27 – 49) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -30 (17 – -8.1)
France 698 (556 – 830) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.3 – 18)
Gabon 111 (91 – 130) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.7 – -88)
Germany 492 (442 – 547) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -43 (390 – -20)
Ghana 153 (129 – 174) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 41 (14 – -44)
Greece 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -57 (5.5 – -4.5)
Guatemala 254 (224 – 280) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 15 (9.2 – 42)
Guinea 79 (63 – 95) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 830 (16 – -17)
Guinea Bissau 26 (12 – 39) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -36 (10 – -6.4)
Haiti 104 (86 – 123) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (7.7 – 86)
Honduras 208 (182 – 231) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 18 (10 – 87)
Hungary 27 (17 – 36) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -25 (15 – -6.9)
Iceland 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.5 (0.2 – 4.6) 1 (0.8 – -1.9)
India 6950 (6420 – 7458) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (16 – 23)
Indonesia 671 (619 – 736) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (18 – 120)
Iran 2192 (2027 – 2343) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 55 (33 – 190)
Iraq 225 (196 – 250) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.4 – 19)
Ireland 67 (51 – 80) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -14 (-3000 – -6.9)
Israel 29 (17 – 39) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 9.4 (4.4 – -64)
Italy 566 (512 – 611) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -32 (-160 – -18)
Japan 36 (24 – 46) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -31 (17 – -8.2)
Kazakhstan 331 (295 – 360) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 37 (17 – -230)
Kenya 77 (61 – 91) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (7 – 110)
Kosovo 11 (3 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) 72 (4.9 – -5.7)
Kuwait 831 (764 – 899) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -95 (120 – -34)
Kyrgyzstan 48 (35 – 60) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (7.3 – -29)
Latvia 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -53 (4.8 – -4.1)
Lebanon 24 (13 – 33) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 41 (6.9 – -11)
Lithuania 12 (5 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 63 (5.5 – -6.7)
Luxembourg 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -22 (5.7 – -3.8)
Madagascar 38 (24 – 48) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 17 (6.3 – -26)
Malawi 19 (10 – 27) Increasing 1.8 (1.2 – 2.5) 3.8 (2.3 – 12)
Malaysia 92 (63 – 115) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 8.8 (5.3 – 24)
Maldives 43 (29 – 53) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 29 (8.2 – -18)
Mali 36 (23 – 45) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 17 (6.4 – -23)
Mexico 3214 (2958 – 3473) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (16 – 25)
Moldova 150 (127 – 170) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -130 (27 – -19)
Mongolia 7 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.9) 83 (3.1 – -3.4)
Morocco 62 (45 – 76) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -18 (110 – -8.1)
Nepal 81 (61 – 95) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.5 (5.4 – 21)
Netherlands 192 (164 – 218) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 48 (16 – -49)
New Zealand 5 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.2) 4 (1.4 – -4)
Niger 9 (2 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) 950 (4.5 – -4.5)
Nigeria 276 (247 – 305) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 88 (22 – -45)
North Macedonia 28 (17 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 47 (7.8 – -12)
Norway 20 (11 – 28) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 27 (5.8 – -9.6)
Oman 363 (330 – 397) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (17 – -98000)
Pakistan 2044 (1886 – 2214) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 39 (26 – 82)
Palestine 7 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 47 (3.9 – -4.9)
Panama 286 (244 – 328) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.3 – 17)
Paraguay 11 (4 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -260 (5.9 – -5.7)
Peru 5011 (4577 – 5520) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (17 – 28)
Philippines 322 (272 – 370) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (9.6 – 35)
Poland 404 (360 – 448) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 37 (18 – -670)
Portugal 249 (216 – 284) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 39 (16 – -100)
Puerto Rico 79 (60 – 93) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 69 (13 – -21)
Qatar 1801 (1648 – 1949) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 29 (21 – 49)
Romania 185 (156 – 217) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 340 (21 – -25)
Russia 9177 (8591 – 9811) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 230 (73 – -190)
Saudi Arabia 2281 (2146 – 2417) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -110 (290 – -47)
Senegal 78 (61 – 93) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -65 (22 – -13)
Serbia 59 (44 – 72) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -27 (32 – -9.5)
Sierra Leone 35 (23 – 45) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 23 (6.8 – -18)
Singapore 504 (451 – 550) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -140 (49 – -29)
Slovakia 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 14 (2.6 – -4)
Somalia 39 (27 – 49) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -54 (13 – -8.9)
South Africa 1215 (1086 – 1328) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (14 – 28)
South Korea 38 (25 – 49) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 8.9 (4.6 – 100)
South Sudan 75 (57 – 91) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 1.9) 5.3 (3.7 – 9.7)
Spain 710 (641 – 772) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (15 – 51)
Sri Lanka 72 (54 – 89) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 5.8 (3.9 – 11)
Sudan 178 (152 – 200) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 220 (21 – -26)
Sweden 545 (492 – 607) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 46 (21 – -240)
Switzerland 18 (11 – 26) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -12 (23 – -4.9)
Tajikistan 200 (175 – 224) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (15 – -66)
Thailand 6 (2 – 10) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.3) 6.6 (2.2 – -6.4)
Tunisia 4 (1 – 8) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.5) 6.8 (2 – -5.4)
Turkey 1091 (994 – 1193) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -50 (150 – -22)
Ukraine 396 (348 – 436) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 210 (29 – -40)
United Arab Emirates 849 (783 – 919) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 73 (30 – -170)
United Kingdom 2592 (2408 – 2804) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -180 (61 – -36)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (5 – 16) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.9 (26 – -3.8)
United States of America 21806 (20507 – 22933) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 400 (120 – -290)
Uzbekistan 63 (49 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 36 (10 – -23)
Venezuela 66 (49 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 93 (13 – -17)
Zambia 33 (23 – 42) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -20 (18 – -6.5)
Zimbabwe 17 (8 – 24) Increasing 1.9 (1.2 – 2.7) 3.7 (2.2 – 14)